• It is official, CS can now say its record sugar production is above 38mmt.
• Few mills remain in operation as the season winds down.
• Hydrous sales over 870mi litres despite unfavourable ethanol parity.

Summary Table 2H November

A New Record: 38mmt

• Large part of the sector has already finished its harvest with only 20% of the mills operating in the 2H of November vs 27% last year.
• This explains the 20% lower crush yoy in this fortnight, with 8.74 mmt of cane processed – still, more than the market was expecting

• Despite the fall in ATR (normal for this time of the year), the sugar content in cane is still high.
• The ATR recorded in the past fortnight was the highest in 20 years, reaching 144.2kg/mtc.
• Although sugar mix retracted to 35.55%, CS sugar production has surpassed 38mmt reaching a record for the region of 38.1 mmt – up 44.2% yoy and 2.3 million more then last record (back in 17/18).

Flags for Next Seasons   

• The dry weather may have been positive for crush operations and sugar yields this season, but it is negative for sugarcane development.
• Last week our analysts visited some regions and the lack of rains is taking a toll on cane growth.

• But we are yet to see the outcome for the 21/22 season, as rains over the next quarter are essential for the overall health of the cane fields.

Ethanol Market

• Average ethanol parity in SP has surpassed 70% this month, meaning that consumers start to switch back to gasohol.
• Still, hydrous sales recorded in the 2H of November saw an increase to the previous fortnight reaching 876 mi liters.
• Although below 2019 levels, it is still a healthy demand even with higher ethanol prices.