Main Points 

  • Until the first 15 days of September, CS reached 430mtc and sugar production was 26.83mm.
  • That is, 7% less compared to the previous crop, which results in 2.4mmt less sugar.
  • Result of weaker and more concerned TCH – risk for possible crop revisions.

 Crop 2021/22 – 1H september 

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Agricultural productivity just falling 

  • The amount of cane processed in the first 15 days of September was 38.4 mtc – 6.3 mmt less than the same fortnight in 2020.
  • With this, the CS achieved an accumulated crushing of 430 mtc against 461 mtc last year

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  • The smaller amount of green mass is a direct consequence of the weak agricultural productivity of recent months:
    • In August, the TCH presented a sharp drop, taking the accumulated productivity to 72.5 mtc/ha, a 15% drop so far.

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  • The trend is expected to continue in September and October.
  • This month’s fire episodes also contribute to an even more damaged TCH
  • This raises the red flag for possible changes to our crop estimates.
  • So far, we are at 520mmtc, but let’s pay attention to the data for the month of September.

 Mills close to shutting down

  • In order to control the impacts of frost mills accelerated their harvesting schedule
  • So far 5 mills have closed their harvest operations – versus 3 last year.

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  • We expect a greater number of mills to close operations in the next fortnights, as a result of a lower availability of sugarcane in this cycle.

 

Prioritizing anhydrous 

  • As in previous fortnights, mills are preferring anhydrous production.
  • In these 15 days, 883mi liters were produced – 18% more compared to 20/21
  • Direct reflection of the parity of pumps (78%) that favors gasoline and drives demand for it.
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  • Sales are still strong, with 483 million liters of anhydrous ethanol sold this fortnight – 31.5% more than in September 2020
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Catarina Junqueira

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