The 2021/22 crop have started and the figures from this fortnight were below expectations.
The prolonged drought has delayed the start of the crop for many mills resulting in a low cane crush volume of 15.6 mmt. – 30.6% less yoy.
In addition, different from general expectation, the sugar content (ATR) dropped to 108.73 kg/tc – against 112kg/tc yoy.

Crop 2021/22 – 1H April

Slow Start Due to Dry Weather

As expected, the 21/22 crop started with smaller number of mills in operation.
According to UNICA at the beginning of the month, it was estimated that 160 mills would be in operation this fortnight, however the actual number fell to 142 units, of sugarcane – 38 less mills from the same period last year.
This happened, as the mills sought to delay the beginning of the harvest as much as possible given that the irregular rains hindered the development of the cane fields.

Despite the favorable weather for harvesting, the smaller number of mills in operation and the low agricultural productivity (TCH) resulted in a decrease in the amount of cane crushed.
The first fortnight of this crop registered a crush of 15.63 mmt of cane (30.6% lower than 1H Apr of 20/21).

With the lower crushing volume, the expected availability of sugar for the beginning of the crop was affected.
But we must remember that given that approximately 80% of the raw sugar production is already hedged and committed to exports, the mills must do their utmost to be able to honor their commitments.
This should help to maintain a max sugar production mix – this fortnight came at 38.55%.

And despite the expected loss in the agricultural productivity (TCH), the drought helps the concentration of sucrose on the plant, which could offset part of the negative effect on productivity.
This fortnight, however, came with a worsening in the quality of the sugar content (ATR) – 108.7 kg/tc against 112.8 kg/tc yoy.
This happens because the sugarcane, which suffered from a period of anticipated (and long) drought, had a shorter maturation time, which impacted on a lower sugar concentration.
In this way, we must be alert to the sugar content number (ATR) of the next fortnights, since it will determine if the amount of sucrose can offset the scenario of less cane availability.

The lower cane crush also impacted the total ethanol production in the fortnight – 730.5 m liters.
Sales, on the other hand, continue to surprise positively, despite the country’s social isolation situation: