It’s the end of the year, and what a year it’s been! It would have been impossible to predict 12 such unprecedented months and we were kept truly on our toes trying to keep up with all that was happening. 1,300 Opinions later and our coverage has been more varied than ever. Here, we take a look our 10 most-popular Opinions of the year.
Czapp’s Most-Read Opinions in 2020
1. Thailand to Suffer its Worst Cane Crop in 10 Years
- After touring the cane fields in North-East Thailand, we have reduced our estimates for cane planting and crushing next season.
- Thailand will crush approximately 65m tonnes of cane in 2020/21.
- This is their poorest crush in over 10 years.
2. October’20 Raw Sugar Expiry: Two Conspiracy Theories
- The world is oversupplied with raw sugar.
- Three receivers have just taken 2.6m tonnes of raw sugar from the futures exchange at a punchy V/H spread.
- What on earth are they playing at?
3. Coronavirus and Sugar Consumption
- We have reduced our global sugar consumption estimate by nearly 2m tonnes this year due to the coronavirus pandemic.
- This means overall sugar consumption will now barely increase this year.
- We expect sugar consumption per capita to fall in 2020.
4. The Long Read: Sugar Consumption and Reformulation
- Many major food and beverage companies are seeking to reformulate (or diversify) some of their product portfolios.
- Each company has a different approach; some foods and drinks are easier to reformulate than others.
- This trend is just starting and will have a huge influence on the sugar market in the coming years.
5. Coronavirus and Sugar Consumption: First Fall in 40 Years
- Global sugar consumption will fall by nearly 2m tonnes (1%) this year compared to 2019, due to coronavirus lockdowns.
- This means sugar consumption per capita will also fall.
- Consumption will not recover fully until life can return to normal in affected countries; at the moment this looks like being in 2021 at the earliest.
6. Thailand Prepares for Worst Sugar Production in 11 Years
- We think Thailand will produce 7.1m tonnes of sugar in 2021.
- This comes as many farmers switched from planting cane to cassava, in search of greater returns.
- This means sugar production will be the lowest in more than a decade.
7. September 2020 Sugar Statshot: Oversupplied in 2020/21
- Global sugar production will total 176.7m tonnes in 2020/21, up 14.3m tonnes year-on-year and almost identical to that of 2018/19.
- Even with the COVID-induced fall in consumption, the world will still produce 5m tonnes more sugar than it consumes.
- This means stocks will rise throughout the 2020/21 season.
8. COVID-19: An Update from Our Manufacturers & Suppliers
- A fall in the temperature of the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is called La Niña.
- The impact of this varies by location, but in Colombia, it increases the amount of rainfall received at the end of the year.
- Colombia’s cane harvest is year-round and higher rainfall can make it difficult for farmers to access cane fields.
9. October 2020 Sugar Statshot – Third Largest Production on Record
- We think global sugar production will total 176.5m tonnes in 2020/21.
- Whilst this is 14m tonnes higher than production in 2019/20, it remains 12m tonnes lower than the record 2017/18 season.
- Despite this, the world will still have almost 5m tonnes more sugar than it needs in 2020/21.
10. India: A 7m Tonne Sugar Export Subsidy in 2020/21?
- India could receive a 7m tonne export subsidy next season.
- This should ensure there are enough exports to reduce India’s large domestic sugar stocks.
- Additionally, the minimum domestic selling price will increase from INR 31/kg (USD 424/mt) to INR 33/kg (USD 450/mt).
