A significantly weaker macro picture helped to accelerate the decline today, pushing lower than may have been anticipated give the already oversold technical picture. For a large part of the day we followed the recent pattern and merely drifted lower, however a more aggressive push occurred mid-afternoon which triggered some fund sell stops and sent May’20 all the way down to 12.95. Breaking beneath the 13c handle did appear to encourage a little more consumer pricing into the market however and these lows held for the remainder of the session despite a further look during the final hour. Spreads were relatively robust again despite the flat price woes, and we saw sold support for the May/Jul’20 just below even money right the way into the close. Aggressive MOC selling sent May’20 down from 13.09 to 12.98 across the call, though settlement remained above 13c. Tonight’s COT will be more keenly viewed than recent weeks, the question being how much of the long have the funds liquidated on the decline?
