Sugar #11 Mar’22
The hopes that we would see more dynamic action following Monday’s upside extension were dashed yesterday and this morning saw the lack of macro support ensure that we retreated further with an initial drop beneath 20c taking March’22 to 19.85. Suddenly it felt as though Monday had never occurred as some supportive consumer interest appeared to help the price back towards 20c over the rest of the morning, the kind of range bound activity which we hoped had been left behind. The start of the US day encouraged some choppy activity with light spec interest swinging the market up to a new daily high 20.15 ahead of the announcement of UNICA data for 2nd half September. When the news emerged it revealed that cane production was 35.788mmt, with sugar at 2.318mt, a mix of 43.71% and ATR 155.58 kg/t. These numbers while well beneath the equivalent period for last year (as expected) were above the majority of market estimates and so it was that some selling emerged to send March’22 back beneath 20c soon afterwards, recording a new session low 19.83 later in the afternoon. A short covering bounce took prices away from the lows during the final hour but was not maintained and by the close we were near to session lows once more, March’22 settling at 19.86 with yet another test of underlying support now seeming the most likely next move.
Sugar #5 Dec21
The failure of the market to build upon Monday’s strength as macro weakness discouraged any further spec buying has left values falling back into the former range, and the decline continued during the early part of today’s session as Dec’21 slipped down to $512.40. Some supportive buying then emerged to pick things back up, particularly so for the front month which was also seeing some solid spread interest and by early afternoon we were comfortably in credit with Dec’21 up to $521.80 and the Dec’21/March’22 more than $3 firmer at $5.30. Though Dec’21 remained net positive as values then eased back from the highs there was less enthusiasm from buyers down the board with falling No.11 ensuring that 2022 values tracked lower once again on the back of little changed white premium values. Dec’21 struggled to pull clear of the mid-teens during the afternoon despite the efforts of long holders and a lack of confidence following the upside failure was illustrated in some MOC selling which sent the price back towards the morning lows, with settlement at $514.10 leaving us right back within the range and as we were just a few sessions ago.
ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No.11 Contract
ICE Europe Whites Sugar Futures Contract
