A mixed opening provided the backdrop to a relatively quiet morning, during which Oct’22 climbed back up to 18.50 but once again without any conviction to try and work through the overhead selling and bring a technical breakout. It was not just the flat price which was lacking buying over the morning as the Oct’22 spreads also suffered from a lack of momentum with the main roll period now behind us, leading Oct’22/March’23 to slip back to the mid 0.30’s. The afternoon brought with it the usual uptick in volume though the additional interest failed to bring any excitement to the flat price with a limited push to 18.55 the only upside effort prior to a late afternoon dip against day trader liquidation. Instead, it was the spreads which continued to draw the most interest with the differential narrowing further as the afternoon progressed, recording a narrowest trade at 0.28 points late in the afternoon. The final hour played out to the bottom of the range, leaving Oct’22 to settle at 18.27 with the Oct’22/March’23 at 0.30 points, while for the spot month it was appropriately an inside day given the largely non-descript nature of events.
Early losses for Dec’22 were gathered up to leave the flat price holding near to unchanged before easing back to the $543.00 area as a quiet morning played out, however the main focus was upon Oct’22 which was moving through its penultimate session. Early movements here saw the price swing a little more wildly either side of unchanged as the Oct/Dec’22 spread continued to swing around, though momentum still seemed to be geared toward the upside. This spread factor left the Dec;22 contract holding sideways well into the afternoon, while Oct’22 pushed on ahead to reach $610 as the spread ran through into the $60’s. Such was the thin nature of the selling at this late stage that we saw a further spike in the spread price to $75, although this movement came at the expense of Dec’22 on flat price with the lack of outright buying meaning that losses were being recorded. While the spread could not maintain at the over inflated highs it was still strong at $66.90 as we headed out, while Dec’22 pulled away from its lows to close at $537.90. 2023 white premiums were weaker as some of the recent gains eroded, seeing March/March’23 back beneath $109 and May/May’23 at $108.00 before settling just off these lows, suggesting some short-term consolidation may be needed as we cool from the recent contract highs.
