There was an immediate push higher on today’s opening as Oct’22 quickly reached the upper 19.30’s, however progress then stalled leaving prices to hold sideways through a few hours of boring inaction. Specs remain key to most movements as prices continue to flit within the wider range, illustrated by Fridays COT report which showed the specs swinging back from last weeks net short to show a 9,843 lot net long, a net increase of 46,579 lots long week-on week. Subsequent movements suggest that the live position is longer than this and so the desire to continue pressing from the buy side is to be expected. A good deal of assistance was being received from a steadily improving macro and as prices continued upward during the afternoon so a couple of waves of buying emerged to follow suit, leading to a session high being made at 19.59. Despite plentiful headroom to continue the push technically the market then lost momentum, day trader profit taking leading Oct’22 back to the same 19.40 area which had held this morning. Spreads were moderately firmer on the flat price rally but without any significant drivers eased back later in the afternoon, the final couple of hours playing out calmly to the centre of the range showing scant regard for the still buoyant macro. Oct’22 settled at 19.41 and while not a bade performance in the context of the wider sector appears to be showing some signs of near-term fatigue.
The week started positively with Oct’22 pushing ahead to $564.40 during the early stages before looking to consolidate ahead of $560 and continue the recent upward trend. All was calm until late morning when the publication of the Aug’22 delivery notice (details below) drew out some light liquidation which sent the front month into debit while also bringing out selling for the Oct’22 spreads. By no means did the market break down however the upward momentum was certainly stifled as we moved into the afternoon with macro gains and No.11 efforts to follow being disregarded as any efforts to follow suit quickly faded. This left white premium values weakening significantly with Oct/Oct’22 back down to $127.50 during the afternoon while March/March’23 nudged back beneath $90.00. Oct’22 dropped back to $554.60 while Oct/Dec’22 traded into $23.60 and despite efforts to recover the pressure resumed during the closing stages with anew session low at $553.00. Settlement was made at $554.10, a weaker close for both the outright and Oct’22 spreads which suggests some exhaustion kicking in following the recent recovery.
As widely anticipated 4,528 lots (226,400mt) were tendered against Aug’22. Deliverers were ADM (Parry (Kakinada) and AKS (Jebel Ali), LDT (Dreyfus) and PFU (Wilmar). Receivers are ECM (Man) and SCD (Sucden). Please find the exchange notice below.
