A weaker opening was swiftly gathered up by defensive buying and Jul’22 pushed quickly on to 20.13 against this action before stalling. The market then entered something of a malaise for a few hours with nearby values holding either side of overnight levels but not threatening to break out of the range until a pre-US opening nudge lower sent Jul’22 into the 19.80’s. This pullback was swiftly reversed with further defensive buying from longs however today was proving to be far quieter than recent sessions and with the macro now struggling the spec impetus soon faded. In context of a now falling macro (both coffee and wheat being particularly hard hit) our own performance stood up quite well until some liquidation of earlier buying sent the price back to marginal new session lows. Consumer interest was virtually non-existent meaning there was little in place to pull the market back once the specs stopped buying and so the final couple of hours played out either side of 19.80. Jul’22 settled at 19.83, providing a lower close though one which maintains the broader recent strength. It remains likely that the specs (and so macro) will play a large part in whether we continue to hold at the upper end of the broad range moving forward with them continuing as the dominant market participants.
