There was light buying on show though the early part of the day (hedge lifting?) with moderate gains made as a result, though by mid-morning the support faded, and prices eased back to explore lower once again. Movement was orderly with any spec selling proving quite light and no sell stops apparent, and with the lower end not gathering momentum some short covering appeared during the early afternoon which pulled the price back to unchanged. With low volumes prevailing the suspicion was that this may end any thoughts of further movement for the day, however sentiment has turned negative again in recent days and so light selling renewed to further extend the recent slide into the 18.60’s. Spreads were proving to be disinterested by the whole affair with Oct/March maintaining between -0.20 points and -0.18 points throughout with the rangebound position in which we find ourselves starting to discourage some participation. An aggressive burst of selling (most likely spec) sent Oct’22 down to 18.63 as we headed into the close but will no follow-on interest the market dug in to leave settlement just above this level at 18.67. This leaves Oct’22 planted to the centre of the months range, and with European holidays now underway sets a worrying tone for the near term should market signals remain subdued.
Early volatility has become something of a recent trend for the whites market, today bringing an initial range between $536.20/$543.00 for Oct’22 before things settled down to hold near to unchanged levels through the rest of a tedious morning. With no significant macro activity, quiet fundamentals and a large range which means the both producers and consumers are currently looking to price some distance from prevailing levels there was nothing to get excited about as we drifted aimlessly into the afternoon, and though eventually we did see Oct’22 drifty back down to march the early low on light spec selling it made no impact. The same sense of apathy was being felt for spreads which saw tight ranges throughout while the Oct/Oct’22 white premium sat around $124.00 for most of the day. MOC selling pushed Oct’22 to new lows and ensured another weaker settlement at $535.90 with further lows possible against spec long liquidation given the illiquidity being seen as we sit to the centre of a very broad range.
