While No.11 was closed for the labour day holiday the whites had been continuing their surge upward, providing justification for a potentially higher call this morning should raws look to break from recent parameters. In the event the price swung either side of unchanged before settling down into the teens, no doubt a disappointment for the bulls in providing another indication that No.11 is content to remain near to 18.00 for the time being in a continuation of the range bound malaise. With white premium values holding firm there was a push up to 18.28 ahead of the US Day getting underway however it failed to gain any traction and the resultant liquidation from day traders sent the price back beneath 18.00 soon afterwards. One area which was unaffected was the front month spread as it continues to perform strongly with a move back out to 0.20 points premium during the afternoon against a sea of red for the outright prompts. The final couple of hours saw price activity calm at the bottom of the range, a slow final period seeing Oct’22 settle at 17.98.
The failure of the No.11 market to follow our performance from yesterday led some early selling into the market which pushed outright values back down by a few dollars, though the movement was relative with the white premiums holding firmly to recent gains. Oct’22 levelled out in the mid $570’s and spent an extended period consolidating, laying the groundwork for an early afternoon push back up through $580.00. Despite the continuing strong intent for the whites the lack of desire from No.11 to follow, combined with a more neutral macro showing, limited any further gains and sent the market into a yo-yo afternoon within a sizable band. Each effort to push higher was rebuffed with No.11 by now continuing at its own session lows, and despite the white premium values continuing to be strong (Oct/Oct’22 at $182 / March/March’23 at $114) there was simply not the necessary support to sustain the flat price strength. Oct’22 slumped to new session lows ahead of the close before settling at $573.20, however the most significant changes came for the spreads with Oct/Dec’22 back below $40 before recovering a little late on to end at $41.70. Overall, the performance was disappointing however in the context of the wider sector the white continues to perform well.
