Opening selling sent March’23 crashing down to 18.41, however there was some reasonable buying interest uncovered which provided a base for the market through the early stages. Volume was being dominated by the specs (as has been the case now for many weeks) and their efforts helped to pull prices away from the lows and back into the 18.60’s by midday to take the pressure off and bring the upside resistance back into view. With the macro improving the specs were encouraged to push a little harder and a small spike followed to 18.80, however the momentum was with prices unable to work beyond Friday’s 18.82 mark leading to a sharp correction back into the range. With the long liquidation completed so a modicum of buying re-emerged to try and ensure a positive element for the day be maintained, however the efforts bore little fruit leaving the market to play out within the range through the final stages. March’23 settled a few points lower at 18.68 which leaves the wider picture unchanged, and despite the efforts to pull prices back up over the course of todays session the upside continues to feel limited at the present time.
Lower No.11 values led prices to jump lower as we started, Dec’22 slipping to $528.00 and March’23 to $503.50 before attempting to find some stability. This movement was in keeping with the wider macro picture and the pressure was maintained through the morning to send March’23 down further to session lows at $501.30, while the Dec;22 declined at an even greater pace due to spread pressure from spec rolling. With specs remaining broadly long of the market there remains a vested interest in defending against downward movement and with the macro beginning to pick back up so a s6teady stream of buying enabled the March’23 value to recover, rising steadily over the next few hours to reach $513.00 by mid-afternoon, filling the overnight gap for the intra-day chart in the process. The one area which did not see recovery was Dec’22 spreads where the ongoing roll pressure sent Dec’22/March’23 to a low at $19.20 while 2023 values were recovering. The final part of the day saw March’22 play out comfortably at the upper end of the range to settle at $510.70, while Dec’22/March’23 ended at $20.00 with the Dec’22 open interest at 24,590 suggesting we may have a little more rolling still to follow despite the good volumes today.
