Sugar #11 Mar ’22
The second half of last week saw the market build some new momentum and despite a rather slow start this morning we saw a desire from specs to continue building as March’22 pushed up through 20c. Fridays COT report showed only a modest rise in the net spec long position to 162.533 lots and with volume remaining light on the subsequent rally there is no doubt that they have the capacity to add further to this position should they so wish. Macro support has been key to this rise and though we again saw a stable backdrop the recent progress has clearly been sufficient for some with prices topping out at 20.10 late in the morning and retreating a touch as the US day failed to bring any fresh interest. Day traders sold their morning longs back out to send the price back to unchanged levels, where activity reduced from its already low levels to leave us drifting aimlessly sideways throughout the afternoon. Spread activity was also fairly light though bulls will not have been encouraged by the March/May’22 as it retreated from an early high at 0.35 points to be trading at 0.26 points during the final hour despite the flat price remaining little changed. The close played out at the lower end of the narrow daily range with the status quo maintained as March’22 settled a mere 2 points lower at 19.92.
Sugar #5 Mar22
A quietly steady start to the new week saw March’22 working up towards the $510 area, finally working beyond the $509.50 level which pegged us late last week to make 3-week highs. The buying sparked a recovery in March’22 spread values also, while at the front of the board Dec’21/March’22 started to reverse last weeks decline and widened out towards $4 premium. The early afternoon brought an unexpected burst of buying (spec?) to spike the price upward to $513.00 and in so doing extend the March’22 white premium value out to $71, however it proved to be a short-lived move and the price quickly dropped through a vacuum to sit in the $509.50 area. With the macro proving to be calmer today as losses in softs offset some mild gains elsewhere we settled down into quiet consolidation, never to leave for the rest of the day with the price rather flatlining for the final four hours. The close came and went with barely a whimper as nearby positions settled positively, Dec’21 closing at 514.00 and March’22 at 510.20.
