A muted start to the session saw March’23 sitting a touch lower on minimal volume, before finding support which pulled the p[rice back up into the 18.70’s by the end of the morning. The macro was far calmer today with a mixed outlook, however as the afternoon got underway and the wider spec community logged on so the desire to test higher re-emerged with the activity moving the price beyond last Friday’s 18.82 mark and drawing the October high at 18.94 back into sharp focus. The next few hours became something of a grind as specs pushed against an assortment of scale selling to take March’23 up to 18.91, though heavy selling from Brazilian mills remains conspicuous in its absence. Spreads were only lightly traded with March/May’23 remaining just beneath 1.00 points, contributing to the relatively low volume number. A fresh push from specs sent March’23 to 18.99, the highest level seen since July, and the picture remained buoyant with a second visit to 18.99 approaching the close. The call saw the elusive 19.00 mark finally reached, a glut of spec buying taking the market to 19.00 and ensuring a strong settlement value to 19.00. the consensus still indicates a view that with plentiful pricing to follow from producers this may well represent a good opportunity to sell, though in the near-term specs will no doubt look to further build on the turnaround of the last two weeks and sound out just what the producers have.
The early stages saw the market trading either side of unchanged levels, though as things settled down it became clear that the desire remains to try and break higher with specs/day traders holding the prices in positive ground. Progress became tricker with some higher volume scale selling in place for March’23 from the lower teens, not surprising given the succession of highs between $515/$524 dating back to July, as so we waited for the afternoon to see what additional momentum the US specs may bring. Initially their buying simply added to the grind higher and extended the current move to $516.00, though with No.11 values also positive there was no sign of any liquidation to send values back down. Dec’22 moved more calmly toward its expiry today despite the open interest showing a still considerable 22,147 lots and never moved too far either side of $20 premium. More new highs were registered during the later stages, March’23 reaching $518.00 on the call as specs took on both sides with end of day dressing meeting some day trader profit taking. Settlement at $517.40 provides a positive position from which to continue trying to test $524.00, though with talk of Indian exports there remain questions as to just how far the market can push.
