Sugar #11 Oct’21
Another calm start for the market failed to yield any significant buying and with attention firmly remaining on the index roll we soon saw the flat price trading down through the recent 19.42 low to break out of the 4 week range. Despite the weakness there was no discernible sign of concern from the spec longs with relatively few stops in place and this led prices to maintain a sense of order as the next few hours saw Oct’21 work all the way down to 19.10, the lowest level seen since 10th August. The move was no wholly surprising given the newswires yesterday reporting of improved Thai can numbers for the coming crop, the first positive crop news for some considerable time though not significant enough to represent a wholesale change to the balance sheet. With the near term technical now vulnerable and no real support until the low 18.80’s the market threw up another curve ball with longs stepping in to defend the move, in the process forcing day traders to cover back short positions as two separate waves of buying took the price back to 19.42 and then onto 19.55 in quick time before stalling as the pace became unsustainable. Through all of this the Oct’21/March’22 saw the anticipated high volumes as it played a range either side of -0.60 points, rather more static following the recovery from -0.79 points in recent days. The flat price edged back down through the range during the latter part of the afternoon to leave Oct’21 in the 19.20’s as we moved into the close, providing a negative conclusion which may yet see the 19c area come under some scrutiny.
Sugar #5 Oct’21
Having been caught in a range over the past couple of weeks the market exhibited some signs of potential weakness this morning with a slid to two week lows. The move was based on low volume with the Oct/Dec’21 spread continuing to see the bulk of activity but that did not prevent the Dec’21 contract from nudging beneath $500 by mid-morning. A slightly more aggressive spike down then followed before the morning was out as light sell stops were triggered beneath $498.00, pushing the market further onto the backfoot with a session low recorded at $493.60 during the early afternoon. This posed the question of whether the $490.30 low from 23rd August would be tested/hold however the answer was quickly apparent as short covering turned prices back higher with short covering and some consumers chasing sending the price back above $500 more quickly than it had fallen. When the buying dried up and the momentum eased we settled back to a sideways pattern near to $500. All remained calm until the closing stages when new selling emerged to send Dec’21 back below $497, and while the market remains calm overall some further downward extension seems possible.
ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No.11 Contract
ICE Europe Whites Sugar Futures Contract
