Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 10th March 2025

May’25 started the week on a firmer footing with trades up to 18.50 in the first few minutes, and while the price then started to fall back there was sufficient buying emerging to ensure that gains remained in place. Friday evenings COT report showed an expected growth in the spec short position to -79,053 lots (-25,782 lots weekly change) and this may have contributed to the support with expectation that any subsequent change in holding since Wednesday will have only added to the short side. A mid-morning push upwards moved prices into the 18.60’s, and this gave the market the shot in the arm that has been needed across recent efforts to mount a more sustained recovery and reverse the recent fall. It was early afternoon when the next burst of buying appeared and it ensured that prices moved another leg higher, filling in some scale selling along the way as the middle of the afternoon saw a high at 19.00. There was a dip from this level as the market encountered some profit taking, however the strength was such that buyers continued to chase in and maintain prices at the upper end of the range. Profit taking intensified close to settlement and market settled at 18.85, 15 points below daily high, but still a 54 point move, moving far away from the bottom of the range. Volume traded was 72k lots, May-July spread weakened 5 points but overall spreads saw an appreciation down the board.

With No.11 values already higher there was some early buying showing for the whites also, however the early part of the day disappointed with the gains lagging those for the raws and seeing the white premium values contract by a couple of dollars. This saw lows registered at $524.40 as the price briefly dipped into the red and it was only during the later morning when May’25 moved through into the lower $530’s that things started to feel a little more positive and bring some confidence to proceedings. There was another push higher during the early afternoon which extended the gains to double digits, and while some better pricing was being encountered in this area the buying ensured that the market remained resilient. Having performed so positively it was inevitable that some profit taking would arrive with day traders taking advantage to book some cash, but while this led to some mild correction the overall movement was still positive. The one area which was still struggling to thrive was the white premium with MayMay’25 lagging in the region of $119.00 due to the scale of No.11 gains, although down the board there were no such issues as the uniformity of white gains saw 2026 arbitrage values trading higher.  May’25 settled at $530.80 after profit taking took place, $5.9 up from previous settlement and MayMay’25 closing with losses at $114.75.