Mild gains through the first 30 minutes were erased with mid-morning fall into the 18.60’s, and it was clear that the recent weakness has not yet satisfied the bears with small traders again playing the short side. Having drifted along either side of 18.60 for the rest of the morning there was an unexpected short covering rally which extended all the way back to 18.87 and matched the early high, though the move then dissipated with Oct’24 falling back into the range. The index roll meanwhile continued along with the bulk of today’s volume being generated by the Oct’24/March’25 spread which was again seeing movements either side of -0.30 points. Moving through the afternoon the market fell back to print new session lows, and the pace of selling increased with the final hour looming as smaller trades / algo’s hunted out the 18.43/18.50 chart gap. This was finally filled with lows recorded at 18.43 on the close, sending the market out at the bottom of the day’s range. Oct’24/March’25 volume showed as 69,000 lots as the day concluded, with the flat price seeing a close at 18.47 to remain near to the centre of the range from the past two months despite the weak daily showing.
It was a familiar pattern for the market this morning as the latest batch of hedge lifting saw Dec’24 rise to $519.00 during the early stages before softening back into the red once the cover had been taken. The downward trend then resumed and with little support to be found the price plunged down to $510.60 before finding some respite with a consolidation pattern developing ahead of the lows through the rest of the morning. The early fall had impacted the Oct/Dec’24 spread with the Dec’24 weakness allowing it to widen to $13.30 before pulling back and levelling out in the $10 area. Moving into the afternoon eyes turned to the US specs to see whether additional losses would be incurred, however their activities remain curtailed at the present time and so the market maintained broadly sideways save for a short covering spike back into the teens. New session lows did arrive during the later part of the day with Dec’24 seeing $509.70, remaining some distance away from the recent lows. Oct’24 open interest has fallen to 22,371 lots following yesterdays activities and another sizable spread volume today should see this diminish further with just three sessions now remaining until expiration. There was a final push down during the closing stages which saw lows of $508.60 and Dec’24 settle $509.00, maintaining the negative trend for another day.
