Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 11th February 2025

The day got off to a positive start with nearby values immediately working higher, led by a widening March/May’25 spread which was immediately trading in the low 1.60’s. This helped to ensure that the outright positions remained firm with March’25 rising steadily to a 19.81 morning high before pausing to take stock of the situation. Clearly the mood is positive out in Dubai with the market building on this start to push higher again during the afternoon and recording a high at 19.94, though again the movements were based on only moderate volume and so petered out as soon as the profit taking kicked in. That did not detract from the general sentiment however and as consolidation set in the price settled into a pattern within the 19.80’s to represent a solid gain. March/May’25 had reached a high at 1.68 points earlier in the day before the heavier index roll selling arrived through the afternoon to knock the value back down through the range, but lows at 1.56 points meant that the spread was still higher on the day. The front of the board maintained buying into the close which led to solid settlement values of 19.87 for March’25 and 18.28 for May’25, well situated to explore above 20c again in the spot month should the mood at the Dubai conference remain positive. 

An odd opening saw May’25 find initial buying to trade at $509.00 before quickly dropping back down to $504.00, causing the white premium value to chop around either side of last night’s closing value. Things soon settled down and what then ensued was a morning of relative tedium with the flat price swinging around within this $5 band on low volume befitting the fact that the price was within the range of the previous two sessions. The early afternoon brought no change to this picture until a fresh push through $509.00 drew in some additional buying which had sufficient weight to remove the light sell orders above and extend the range to $513.40. Sadly, for the bulls that proved to be the extent of the movement with a lack of trade buying meaning that there was no depth to the volume, and instead the market settled back down to trade a new range above $510.00 for the rest of the afternoon. Alongside this there was movement again for the March/May’25 spread ahead of Thursdays expiry with the trade longs happily nudging the value upward again and widening to a high at $20.80 late in the afternoon as they look to maintain its strength into the tender. May/May’25 was benefitting from the drag effect of this in a small way and by late afternoon was sitting around $2 firmer at $109.25. Values remained stead to see a May’25 close at $512.30, with buying continuing into the post close and the day concluding at session highs.