Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 11th March 2025

The market looked to continue yesterday’s sharp rally with early buying taking May’25 up to 19.04, however the gains were short-lived and with less than an hour of trading completed we were trading back at unchanged. A short period of calm then ended with small trader liquidation that sent the price quickly down to the 18.60’s, though with volume on the low side the thin environment allowed for a recovery to the 18.90’s as the Americas day go underway. This see-saw movement continued through the afternoon as another dip saw the daily range extend down to 18.57 and erase a little more of yesterdays recovery. Further losses were averted despite the market remaining near to the lows for a period, but despite there being generally positive news on the wires regarding lower Indian supply and stock reduction the market was showing no sign of moving higher. The earlier pattern of spec led movement continued right through to the close and led to one more swing during the final hour as May’25 moved back to 18.82 before settling at 18.67, a mildly disappointing way to end the session as the market levels out following recent wild activity.

Early trading saw May’25 showing modest gains however they did not last, and the market soon dropped back beneath $530 to continue the path started on last nights close when the price was pushed sharply lower. The fall gathered pace during the middle of the morning and sent May’25 down to $525.20, though with the movements being driven by smaller traders / specs some recovery followed, and the market was trading back above $530.00 as we reached the early afternoon. One significant difference for the market this week has been the drop in May’25 spread and white premium values, both of which had previously proved so resilient when the flat price was falling. As May’25 swung around at the bottom of the range through the afternoon the May/May’25 value fell to $112.00, while May/Aug’25 registered session lows at $14.70 on steady volume. This pulled the total volume up to moderate levels despite much of the trade having very little involvement, with final hour movement seeing the market try to climb from the lows before returning to $524.00 on the call. Settlement was made at $524.50, with May/May’25 valued at $112.90 and May/Aug’25 settling at $15.10.