A positive start to the day saw Oct’24 above 18.50, and unlike previous sessions the gains were maintained with the price moving to 18.60 before consolidating. This firmer approach was possibly enabled by having filled the underlying chart gap last night, but whatever the motivation the smaller traders had clearly embraced the move as additional buying emerged to send prices higher still towards the end of the morning. There was cautionary position squaring ahead of the US morning, however the US specs followed suit to the morning trend and sent prices flying beyond 18.90 soon afterwards to reverse all of yesterday’s losses. The index roll was continuing to dominate volumes through these shenanigans to show another sizable volume, though again the impact of the spread value was minimal as trade interest met it head on. Highs were recorded at 18.98 before a retreat to the range occurred against long liquidation. This brought home the fact that the smaller traders playing the opposite side will not be sufficient to mount a sustainable change in fortunes for the market, and though there was some buying during the latter stages to boost the gains a touch it doesn’t alter the wider picture. Oct’24 closed at 18.73, while Oct’24/March’25 went out at -0.34 points.
Dec’24 started the day higher and through the early p[art of the session enjoyed a more comfortable performance than of last with the price rising above $513.00. This set the tone for a turnaround in fortunes and the flat price continued to climb through the teens as the morning progressed to regain some lost ground and take on a more stable appearance. Greater momentum was then generated during the early afternoon with spec interest from the US helping the flat price above $520.00 to show double digit gains and recover white premium values in the process. Oct’24 open interest showed another modest decline versus volume traded to now stand at 19,029 lots and with time running out until expiry it is increasingly appearing we will see a sizable tonnage tendered. Inevitably there was day trader liquidation during the afternoon which dropped the price back down by several dollars, but overall, the market held up well with trades above $520.00 again as we reached the close. White premium values ended firmly with Oct/Oct’24 at $116.00 and March/March’25 at $93.25, while Oct/Dec’24 closed at $9.80 having seen late buying. Dec’24 closing at $519.30 stabilises the picture though the market remains resolutely stuck to a range.
