Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 12th March 2025

A mixed opening saw May’25 wipe out most of its initial gain and slip back to 18.69, however the early strength then resumed with May’25 pushing ahead to 18.90 to sit back within proximity of this week’s highs. Trading then quietened considerably for the rest of the morning as a consolidation pattern developed, and this in turn provided the platform for additional gains to be made as the afternoon developed. On the first attempt higher this only resulted in reaching 18.98 to remain a small distance short of the 19.04 weekly high, but following another period of consolidation the market gathered itself to push again and, on this occasion, extended through 19.00. Much of the buying came from smaller traders / specs with them filling in some assorted producer pricing as May’25 reached to 19.12, but though they continued to support the price above 19c into the final hour that proved to be the extent of the gain. Until the final 15 minutes the market looked set for a psychologically positive close above 19c, however the necessity for day traders to close out longs ahead of the close sent the price back into the range and resulted in a close at 18.86. In context of the day this was a disappointing finish which does little to change the technical picture, though it does at least negate yesterday showing and suggest that we are unlikely to see a quick return to the lows.

Yesterday’s lethargic performance was quickly forgotten as opening buying took May’25 back up into the lower $530’s and re-establish some of the positive momentum from the start of the week. The movement did stall ahead of $535.00 where some better scale selling started to be seen, and the market became quite calm with a narrow band prevailing through into the afternoon on low volume. The higher levels were allowing for some recovery in the spread and arbitrage values, although these were to pick up further when the market finally found some renewed buying interest during the three hours. Aided by some spec buying May’25 pushed through to $540.00, marking its highest value of the current recovery to improve the technical picture once more. May/May’25 traded up around $118.00 with the May/Aug’25 spread reaching $19.00, although neither was able to maintain these highs to the end of the session due to spec liquidation across the final stages. May’25 slipped back to settle at $533.20 with the spot selling sending May/Aug’25 back down to $16.00 and provide a more neutral end to what was an otherwise quiet, but generally positive session.