It was another weak start for May’24 as early trading saw the price slip back to 22.68 before some defensive buying kicked in. This enabled the market to gradually claw its way back from the lows and while trading remained very slow on low volumes there was sufficient interest to have the market trading around overnight levels by late morning. Marginal new daily highs were seen around noon however they proved to be short lived as the market soon worked back down through the morning range. This in turn led to additional losses during the afternoon with smaller specs seeming to be more comfortable with playing the short side and lows were recorded at 22.51. As so often there was a sharp covering rally to quickly emerge from the extreme of the range and this took the price back to mid-range, leaving May’23 edging back along in the region of 22.70 as we moved into the final hour. March/May’24 had meanwhile been seeing the last of the index roll take place and with the flat price lower the spread was also under some pressure and reached a narrowest 0.66 points with settlement only just above this level. The close saw a little more selling emerge and push prices back down the range, which ensured a weaker close for May’24 at 22.62 and brings last week’s recent low mark of 22.44 back into view.         May’24 whites followed the lead from No.11 to trade lower during the early stages and saw a sharp drop to $640.20 before stabilising. A morning of calm consolidation then developed with the market pulling back up to a small credit, though the thin nature of the volume was apparent during late morning when May’24 gave back a few dollars on just 100 lots before making an about turn and recovering to a daily high $648.60. The recovery could not last though and sentiment once more became the driver with recent upside failures now encouraging the smaller traders to test the underlying support. Their efforts sent values through the earlier lows with May’24 reaching $639.30, though that remains almost $7 above last week’s low mark and reflects a firming of the white premium with May/May’24 trading around $143.00. A short covering move did see the market briefly touching back to unchanged levels however while the specs view any opportunity to the lower end of the range there was a return of selling ahead of the close. This left May’24 settling at $641.90 though whether that acts as a stop on the way to challenging the lower $630’s remains to be seen.   

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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