Early buying sent May’25 upward to quickly break above the early January high and trade at 18.54, however with little continuation interest then being seen the price dropped back slightly and entered a consolidation phase that saw values sit in the 18.40’s through the rest of the morning. On low volume (aside from spread interest) this situation maintained through the early afternoon until another nudge up encouraged some new spec buying and spiked the market on to 18.66. An immediate pullback was gathered around the January highs and this provided fresh encouragement to buyers who then pushed the price further still on a second wave. Alongside this we were seeing the final day of the index roll where another reasonable volume generated smaller movements for the differential as March/May’25 sat mainly in the low 1.40’s. The second push higher proved to be slow and steady but extended through the duration of the afternoon to an eventual high at 18.86 to position that market firmly as the Dubai conference concludes. May’25 settlement was only just below this high at 18.84, though the March/May’25 spread did not fare so well through the late afternoon with more aggressive index rolling widening the range down to 1.30 points ahead of a close at 1.33 points.
May’25 started the day on the front foot again with opening buying taking the price higher with prints to $523.20 placing it only just below the recent highs. Having stalled in the same area as yesterday some nervousness started to show again amongst the smaller traders with selling sending the price down to a mid-morning low at $518.50 before picking back up into the range. In uneventful trading the following hours saw prices holding a narrow band, though this did have the effect of restoring some confidence and encouraging another challenge of the highs moving through the afternoon. On this occasion the effort was more successful with new ground being broken, and as the momentum gathered so new buying joined the fold and enabled the rally to extend with steady gains recorded across the rest of the afternoon. This culminated in highs at $530.00 on the close and a strong settlement value of $529.40, movement which will provide fresh technical impetus to the rally. Spreads were also firm with May/Jul’25 closing at $17.20 and along with the May/May’25 arbitrage at $114.00 provide a solid structure for additional gains. March’25 saw limited volume ahead of expiry as the final position liquidation took place from this not engaging with the tender. March/May’25 ranged from $19.00 to $30.00, seeing a light volume of just 336 lots before closing at $20.50. Early indications are that 8,224 lots (411,200mt) will be tendered with formal confirmation to follow from the exchange tomorrow morning.
