Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 14th April 2025

Raw Sugar Update

The week commenced with Jul’25 still sitting at the lower end of the current trading band, and early trades either side of overnight levels did nothing to inspire any change to this picture. From an early low at 17.71 the market started to move along in a sideways pattern either side of 17.80 through the next few hours, sitting ahead of consumer scale support but without appearing likely to recover in any significant way. Macro influence was lower with markets a little calmer for the time being, further limiting movements, and though the early part of the afternoon saw prices work up to new daily highs it was movement built upon low volume and so was not sustained. With Jul’25 far ahead as the “virtual spot month” based upon open interest we were seeing 17.55 act as the initial support, and when the market was pushed sharply lower during the afternoon this level remained intact with lows at 17.62, far more important that May’25 where the removal of its low on the way to 17.81 was largely ignored. The market attempted some correction from the lows against short covering however the char weakness prevailed and so left Jul’25 towards the lower end of the range heading into the close. Settlement was made at 17.69 to raise more downside questions which will leave 17.55 closely monitored moving forward, while the May’25 option expiry may also exert some influence.  

White Sugar Update

Aug’25 was quickly sold down to $500.00 soon after we opened, and while no further losses were incurred in the period which followed the market struggled to pull far away from the lows. The sideways pattern endured through a quiet morning and though marginal new lows at $499.50 were registered as the US morning commenced there was no real change to the pattern for a few hours more. Midway through the afternoon there was fresh movement as Aug’25 broke down through the lows and dropped quickly to $496.30, though the momentum waned before last months $494.90 mark could be reached to maintain some fragile chart support. Aug’25 struggled to climb away from the lows and remained short of $500 despite some short covering, with an eventual close at $498.00 to bring the curtain down on a slower session. Aug/Jul’25 was valued at $108.00 having flitted either side of $110.00 through the day leaving the market still showing some vulnerability for the near term. Another fall in May’25 open interest sees the figure now stand at just 3,022 lots entering the final two sessions of trading. While volume has diminished there was still activity being seen for the May/Aug’25 spread which surged significantly through the afternoon to a high at $33.80 on a still solid volume of more than 2,000 lots as the last of the traders chased out of open positions with the spread ending the day at $29.40.