Having made it 11 positive days in a row yesterday the market has moved into increasing overbought ground, and while this has may questioning whether we will top out for the time being there was no immediate sign that this would occur Despite a weaker commodity macro the morning saw comfortably consolidation within a 19.74 / 19.97 band, only just beneath yesterday’s highs to prime the situation for another potential push upward through 20c. The arrival of US specs brought no change to this picture as for a change the market simply drifted along through this mid-session period, though thoughts that this may mark a turnaround in the stratospheric rise this month proved premature. A mid-afternoon push saw the market finally print to a 20c handle, and though that move faded soon after it proved to be merely a pause in the upward progress. With Brazilian pricing absent due to a public holiday (limited as it has been) and others continuing only on a scale basis the market punched upward over the final hour with an aggressive move to reach 20.33, an incredible showing to move the upward tally to 12 and place the market 272 points above the lows recorded as recently as 28th October. Settlement was made to the top of the range at 20.29, bringing into view former highs from the early part of the year at 20.43 (17th May) and 20.63 (13th April).
Another slow morning got underway with unchanged values, however with the specs absent prices started to ease back a little and March’23 lost around $4 before stabilising. Unlike recent sessions there was no immediate reaction as the Americas day got underway leaving prices to continue within the morning range, maybe in part due to the macro which was moderately lower though our recent movements have shown that we have largely detached for the time being. Belatedly the momentum started to re-emerge with the market pushing back up towards yesterdays highs to leave the picture well set once more and primed for the latest in a long line of new highs. Once more any selling was simply filled in casually to send the price all the way to $548.00, though spreads were seeing little change as March/May’23 sat near to $9.00 on low volume. The buying continued into the close with March’23 reaching $552.40 with settlement just aa dollar shy of this market at $551.30, another strong showing to continue this month’s positivity.Tonight saw Dec’22 expire at $579.20 while the Dec’22/March’23 spread was valued at $27.90. It is thought that 7,190 lots (359,5000mt) will be tendered with full details available tomorrow.
