Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 17th March 2024

The week commenced positively with May’25 initially printing a few points higher and then accelerating ahead into the 19.40’s on light volume as the buyers found few resting orders to run into. The movements were potentially aided by a surprising COT number on Friday which showed only a tiny reduction of 797 lots that leaves the net short at a still sizable -79,850 lots despite the market rallying to 19c during the reporting period, encouraging smaller traders to play the long side as they look to trigger some liquidation from this sector. Brief consolidation was followed by another push into the low 19.60’s to position the market strongly ahead of the Americas morning. The pick up in volumes that comes with the afternoon saw the buy side continuing to dominate the direction of movement with the next push taking the market to 19.88, and while on this occasion it took some heavier buying to achieve the gains it would still only be classed as a moderate volume with the overhead resistance from assorted growers confined to sporadic limit orders and resting scales. There was a small easing from the highs as some profit taking kicked in and the buying eased up, however the price only dropped back by 0,20 points and so with solid gains in place it remained primed to look higher again towards the end of the session. With spreads trading firmly alongside the nearby strength (May/Jul’25 was out to 0.40 points later in the afternoon) the market forged ahead again to make new highs heading into the close and touch at 20.00, a couple of points above the February high and the highest May’25 price since 10th December. With settlement only just below at 19.97 this represents a strong technical showing which given chatter regarding physical supply concern may lead prices higher still.          

May’25 leapt up to $547.30 on the opening as it reacted to the strength of No.11 and then proceeded to continue making gains as spec buying pushed through a relative vacuum of selling. By late morning, the price had moved well into the $550’s to show double digit gains, and the strength was not just confined to the outright with gains also being seen through the spread and white premium values. The arrival of US based specs provided the market with a fresh shot in the arm and sent May’25 up above $560.00, and while some larger pricing orders started to be seen at these levels to halt the progress it did not dampen the sentiment with the market consolidating a small way below the highs to maintain positive sentiment. By Tan stage the May/Aug’25 spread was trading around $20, such was the scale of front month support, while for the May/May’25 white premium the gains and show of strength was starker with trades around the $126.00 mark. These values remained firm as the flat price buying generated yet more session highs during the last ninety minutes of trading, with May’25 topping at $565.90 ahead of the close to show its highest traded price this year. Despite some end of day position closing / management <ay’25 posted a settlement at $564.80 which ensures a strong technical picture, while May/May’25 was valued at off its highs at $124.50 due to late No.11 strength.