Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 18th March 2025

There was an interesting dynamic to the opening as aggressive selling looked to sell the market back down, printing May’25 back to 19.63 before buyers returned the price to the 19.80’s as soon as the selling abated. Calm then took over with the price moving sideways through the early morning, and while the price remained marginally lower the action will have pleased longs as it showed confidence in yesterdays movement. Late morning saw the market move back to a small credit and match the 20c high mark, however a nudge to 20.03 failed to yield any fresh buying and instead triggered some long liquidation. Coinciding with the start of the US morning this liquidation and spec selling sent May’25 back down to 19.75 and May/Jul’25 down to 0.34 points, however another show of resilience saw the market pull back up again and register another new high. This cycle played out again through the afternoon as the market swung up and down, with a high at 20.09 recorded along the way though additional progress was not possible. Instead, the market remained at the upper end of the range to post a marginally higher settlement at 19.99, concluding a solid session but also creating some uncertainty as to the continuing upside credentials with the market now encountering heavier upside selling / pricing from producers.

Despite trading a new high at $566.20 on the opening it was a generally quiet start to the session with traders content to hold the market in the lower/mid $560’s following yesterdays sweeping gains and assess the next movement. Having successfully held this area some fresh buying began to appear and take the price through to another set of new highs which saw May’25 top at $566.90, though continuation buying did not seem to be so prevalent and consolidation continued ahead of the Americas morning. The current rally then suffered a sizable blow as prices reversed back to $560.90 during the early part of the US morning and killed the technical strength, and while there was some recovery from this mark the structure was struggling to regain its sheen. May’25 tracked along well shy of the highs through the rest of the afternoon as white premium and spread values gave back differing amounts of their recent gain, May/May’25 losing ground to $121 while the May/Aug’25 spread was all the way back to $14.90. The flat price was at the lower end of the range as the close approached, and a varied closing period saw May/25 close at $562.90, a disappointing value in the context of yesterday’s move but one which by no means yet dismisses further upside potential.