Yesterday’s unconvincing performance raised a few questions as to the sustainability of the rally, however the day started around unchanged with the price appearing comfortable at current levels. This provided the basis to try and build again later the morning with Oct’24 pushing back up through 19.00 and into the low teens, a healthier position to be in ahead of the US morning as longs looked to attract additional buying. Highs were recorded at 19.22 as the Americas joined the fray, but there was not the hoped for buying emerging and in quick time a long liquidation led fall saw the market back down through 19.00 and appearing vulnerable. Another quick drop into the 18.60’s followed as more long liquidation arrived, and with volumes proving to be paltry there was no sign that buyers would return to pick things back up. The trend was set and so a third push down to 18.39 raised few eyebrows, extending the daily range beyond 0.80 points and erasing all the weeks gains by trading beneath Mondays low. The rest of the day was spent digging in to prevent further losses before some MOC buying emerged, sending Oct’24 out at 18.50 and slap back into the range.
It was a calm start to today’s session with Oct’24 trading marginally higher during the early part of the day, looking to rebuild confidence following yesterday’s lacklustre effort but failing to convince with only light volume changing hands. A little more momentum did generate either side of noon to lift the price to $539.10, however the optimism has faded and there were few willing to take the market ahead, possibly influenced by general apathy / weakness across the wider sector. Having stalled in the upper $530’s the market experienced a turnaround, and this time some momentum did develop with recently acquired longs being thrown out to send Oct’24 quickly down to $527.10. That was not the end of the pain and pressure continued to be applied for the rest of the day, though the rate of decline was slower due to the re-emergence of some consumer pricing scales. Oct’24 made it down to $523.00 heading into the close, with settlement a small way above at $523.50, leaving the Oct/Oct’24 arb weaker at $115.65 and bringing last week’s lows right back into focus.
