March’24 commenced its tenure as spot with an early nudge up to 22.62, and though volume was mild there remained a quiet stability which maintained through the morning. With specs having retreated from any sizable activity this week the market stalled and during the early afternoon slipped back and encouraged a little day trader selling on the way to 22.24, though having dipped the price soon clawed back to unchanged as the positions were covered back in. This coincided with the publication of the Oct’24 delivery notice and triggered some fresh buying which sent he market through to new daily highs, clearly not concerned by the assortment of Central American origins which accompanied the Brazilian sugars in the tape. Progressing into the later afternoon there were also news reports of increased tensions and activity in the Middle East, and as always in such circumstance buying followed to take the price back up through 23c and a high at 23.07 before cooling on some profit taking. Sentiment remained positive despite the resultant pullback and during the later stages March’25 pushed back up to settle at 22.97 and placing the market back onto a more positive path.
There was some light buying around through the first hour which saw prices trading positively in the upper $570’s, however as the morning progressed this faded and so a retreat began. The decline continued through the morning with an acceleration during the early afternoon which dropped the price to $568.40, some $9 lower though still above the low levels seen yesterday. At this stage, the market appeared vulnerable to additional losses with lower white premium values reflecting the struggles of the refined sector, however No.11 was starting to show renewed strength and so the market tagged higher on its coattails. Movement from the lower $570’s back into the $580’s was somewhat rapid as No.11 trade flows and the worrying middle east situation combined to encourage another wave of buying. Dec’24 reached $586.50 before cooling on profit taking, though from a flat price perspective the sentiment pulled prices back towards the highs during the closing stages. This came despite the March/March’25 white premium ending the day at $81.60, while the front month spread remains at a discount with a close at -$5.20. Dec’24 settlement at $582.80 is positive and leaves the market looking higher again, particularly considering the geopolitical situation, though current fundamentals mean that we will likely make progress in conjunction with No.11 for the time being.
