March’23 was sold down to 19.60 in the opening minutes however some buying quickly emerged to reverse this decline and instead set the market back off on an upward trajectory. Last weeks COT report showed only a modest increase in the net speculative long position to 165,286 lots, and while the move to the 19.90 area came at a pace it again seemed to be based largely on day trader and algo movements with the hedge funds still absent, suggesting that the live position is likely only little changed from this figure. The market remained positive through into the early afternoon but with no fresh interest being generated from the US a decline then followed as morning buyers mounted an exodus from their positions. With the price action now taking place at the bottom of the range it was very much a case that we were repeating last weeks activities with another range bound session firmly established and volumes slipping back to minimal levels. March/May’23 did see some reasonable volume on route to a lower close at 1.26 points however the rest of the board was calm, with no sign that things are set to change anytime soon. A quiet close saw March’23 settle at 19.70, a mere two points beneath Friday’s level.
There was some reasonable volume changing hands as the new week got underway, leading to come volatility within the confines of recent parameters as March’23 swung between $543.60 and $552.30 before settling down to hold the upper $540’s. This led interest to decline sharply, and even the arrival of those in the Americas failed to generate any fresh movement, and so some light liquidation which appeared was merely a distraction to the ongoing apathy. Gains for the wider macro were of no interest as specs stood aside and instead, we saw the market simply move into consolidation mode, edging along either side of last nights closing levels without appearing likely yo move very far. The same could be said for both spreads and white premiums, a worrying sign for those hoping that the market can find some fresh life and opportunity. March’23 pulled up during the closing stages to end a dollar higher at $547.40, with the current sideways pattern highly likely to continue unless some fresh news emerges.
