Raw Sugar Updates

The growing malaise in the market continued this morning as initial unchanged prints preceded a price drift to the lower 17.80’s through which the tight range perfectly encapsulated the lack of interest. Increasingly the small traders are joining the exodus from participation and standing aside, and although a small nudge lower resulted in Jul’25 touching beneath yesterdays low at 17.71 it proved to be a brief dip and trading returned to the 17.80s during the early afternoon. There was no fresh impetus from US specs which left the aimless drift to continue with the brief efforts to challenge the early 17.94 high mark coming up just short. Spreads were also only seeing peppercorn volumes with May/Jul’25 activity starting to reduce ahead of next Wednesdays expiry. There was a move back towards the lows later in the afternoon until some final hour buying ensured a close towards the centre of the narrow daily range with the ongoing lack of fresh news inhibiting the prospect of fresh movement. Jul’25 settled a few points lower at 17.85, the single digit losses leaving the market treading water for another day.  

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
May’25 17,98 18,00 17,78 17,92 -0,02 17,93 27.371 77.336
Jul’25 17,92 17,94 17,71 17,85 -0,03 17,85 42.217 327.068
Oct’25 18,07 18,07 17,86 17,98 -0,05 17,97 15.003 154.102
Mar’26 18,46 18,46 18,24 18,35 -0,06 18,34 11.027 107.872
May’26 17,63 17,66 17,47 17,61 -0,02 17,60 6.358 53.502
Jul’26 17,28 17,30 17,13 17,28            –   17,28 2.924 35.307
Oct’26 17,30 17,32 17,15 17,31 0,01 17,31 1.429 32.032
Mar’27 17,61 17,67 17,50 17,65 0,01 17,66 718 15.622
May’27 17,15 17,26 17,11 17,23 0,02 17,25 653 7.246
Jul’27 16,95 17,08 16,91 17,04 0,02 17,08 560 8.961
Oct’27 17,02 17,04 16,98 17,12 0,03 17,04 282 5.825
                 
Total             108.542 824.873

White Sugar Updates

It was another slow start to trading as Aug’25 edged along sideways through the first hour before begging to attract some selling and tracking a little lower. Volume remained low as the price slipped beneath $500,00 during the late morning, with disinterest from many parts with the psychological level holding no sway after recent sessions. There was no continuation selling to test back down the recent range and so with prices lifting away from the lows we saw small traders move to the long side and send Aug’25 to new daily highs, first at $504.80 and then at $505.40. This was still a fair distance shy of the level reached yesterday and following a period of consolidation there was an inevitability about the liquidation whi9ch sent the price spiking back towards the lows. This trading pattern did bring some mild movement to the Aug/Jul’25 white premium with gains showing to a varying degree through the day, the highs being seen later in that afternoon around $111.00 with the flat price by now trading more calmly to the middle of the range. Some fresh buying appeared for the close to ensure a higher settlement price at $504.50, though this changes nothing in terms of the broader picture with work to be down in the near term if the market is to continue beyond yesterdays $508.70 high mark.   

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 503,40 505,60 499,10 504,50 1,20 504,80 8.216 54.684
Oct’25 496,80 497,10 491,70 496,00 -0,40 496,10 2.355 17.524
Dec’25 495,10 495,10 489,60 493,10 -1,60 493,30 966 7.255
Mar’26 496,70 496,80 491,60 494,50 -2,30 494,80 840 5.806
May’26 493,10 493,10 488,40 491,10 -2,20 491,10 499 2.692
Aug’26 488,40 489,20 485,50 488,10 -1,90 488,30 119 1.662
Oct’26 486,70 487,70 484,50 486,50 -1,60 485,40 71 983
Dec’26 486,70 488,50 485,10 486,70 -1,40 488,50 21 854
Mar’27 488,00 488,20 488,00 487,80 -1,30 488,20 5 302
May’27          –              –              –   485,20 -1,30 485,20            –   210
Aug’27          –              –              –   482,60 -1,40 –            –   3
Oct’27          –              –              –   484,00 -1,40 –            –   60
Dec’27          –              –              –   482,80 -1,40 –            –                 –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   482,10 -1,40 –            –                 –  
Total             13.092 92.035

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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