Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 24th March 2025

Initial prints at unchanged soon gave way as sellers dominated the early exchanges, and their efforts sent May’25 sliding down to 19.50 with just 30 minutes of the session having elapsed. A little short covering then followed and pulled the price back up to the 19.60’s however it was becoming apparent that the sellers were in change and the market capped off in this area before falling to new daily lows towards the end of the morning. Fridays COT report had shown a larger than anticipated reduction in the net speculative short of 37,893 lots, virtually having the holding to stand at -41,957 lots, and the combination of this and last weeks consistent failure to move far beyond 20.00 have likely dented confidence for the time being. The market continued to flounder with buyers suddenly hard to find, and while there was some spec selling emerging amongst the day trader activity it was not of any obviously large quantity with some funds likely wary of turning short again having now seen the market turn on a couple of recent occasions. The lack of tangible end user interest allowed the selling to send May’25 into the 19.20’s as we approached the close and led to a settlement price at 19.26, providing a weak conclusion to a slow session that leaves the market back towards the centre of the recent broad 18.00 / 20.00 range.   

Following the lead being set by No.11 the market dropped down to $548.00 on the opening, and while some defensive buying emerged soon afterwards to partially recoup losses it was insufficient to bring May’25 back up to overnight levels. A period of stagnation followed until selling resumed during the later morning and sent the market lower still, in the process reaffirming the movement which began late last week with the falling values for spreads and white premium. Outright activity was modest with a large proportion of the nearby volume originating from the May/Aug’25 spread where rolling interest grows now that barely 3 weeks remain until the May’25 expiry, with the flow again more aggressive from the sell side and further narrowing the value. As the May’25 contract legged its was down to the lower $540’s through the afternoon the May/Aug’25 spread narrowed into $11.60, and while the premiums had stopped losing ground May/May’25 was finding it difficult to move away from the $117.00 area. With the afternoon losses having closed the small $544.70 / $543.20 chart gap there was some position covering seen which brought the price back up by a few dollars into the final hour, though thoughts that this may reduce the end of day losses were premature as selling returned ahead of the close. This saw May’25 settle at $542.40 before making new lows at $541.70, another weak close which leaves prices firmly rooted back into the recent range.