Raw Sugar Updates

The pattern of this week’s trading maintained through the early part of the session with July’25 initial rooted in the 17.80’s and still showing no sign of any noteworthy movement. Across the rest of the morning there was some range extension up into the mid 17.90’s but still the environment remained thin and uninspiring. In fact, it took until mid-afternoon for anything of interest to occur with the continuing rangebound drift finally broken as some fresh buying appeared to push prices back above 18.00 as traders tried to engineer a positive conclusion to the week. The movement led Jul’25 to a new weekly high at 18.11 while also pulling Jul/Oct’25 up to -0.10 points, though progress was not completely straightforward as scale pricing orders across 2025 positions provided some resistance. Having worked hard to forge the opportunity there was a drive from some specs to continue higher through the later stages and their efforts enabled Jul’25 to record a high at 18.20 on the close, its highest level in more than 2 weeks. Settlement was recorded at 18.18 to provide a positive aspect to the chart and some hope that we may see more interesting trading next week alongside Wednesdays May’25 expiry. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
May’25 17,92 18,20 17,89 18,18 0,26 18,16 38.793 75.211
Jul’25 17,90 18,20 17,81 18,18 0,33 18,16 55.353 333.112
Oct’25 17,98 18,30 17,94 18,28 0,30 18,25 17.012 155.009
Mar’26 18,34 18,64 18,31 18,61 0,26 18,60 12.461 110.040
May’26 17,63 17,85 17,58 17,81 0,20 17,81 5.028 54.897
Jul’26 17,29 17,49 17,27 17,45 0,17 17,46 2.549 35.442
Oct’26 17,32 17,49 17,31 17,45 0,14 17,45 1.237 32.023
Mar’27 17,70 17,81 17,70 17,77 0,12 17,74 417 15.603
May’27 17,28 17,37 17,28 17,34 0,11 17,36 323 7.199
Jul’27 17,09 17,15 17,09 17,14 0,10 17,12 148 8.977
Oct’27 17,16 17,20 17,16 17,21 0,09 17,20 71 5.880
                 
Total             133.392 833.393

White Sugar Updates

Initial lower trades were soon reversed, and the market was able to make mild gains through the morning within the boundaries of this week’s range, though at the upper levels some light pricing was sufficient to act as a buffer and limit Aug’25 to a morning high of $507.80. Some longs proceeded to liquidate into the early afternoon when the Americas day failed to draw any fresh interest and as the middle of the afternoon arrived it seems that we would end the week on a very slow session. This situation changed with the arrival of some new spec buying that shot the price up through the morning high and drew in additional support from which the market could break beyond Wednesdays highs at the second attempt and into some slightly clearer ground. Progress remained steady through the later part of the afternoon, helping the Aug/Jul’25 white premium up to $112.50 and Aug/Oct’25 to $10.00 in the process as the flat price reached $511.00 to the delight of the spec longs. From here they were able to gain additional ground through the final 30 minutes by taking the market to a close at $514.00, just $0.70c beneath the daily high, and leaving both the spread and arb heading out at their daily highs of $10.50 and $113.50. While by no means dynamic yet on the chart, this performance provides a basis from which the market has potential to continue upward on Monday should the buyers wish to continue driving.

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 504,50 514,70 503,70 514,00 9,50 513,70 7.059 54.109
Oct’25 496,90 504,60 495,70 503,80 7,80 503,40 2.871 17.252
Dec’25 493,40 500,30 492,60 499,80 6,70 500,20 1.485 7.448
Mar’26 494,80 500,90 494,00 500,40 5,90 500,60 528 6.173
May’26 491,70 496,60 490,50 496,10 5,00 496,40 189 3.011
Aug’26 489,40 492,70 487,50 492,50 4,40 492,70 88 1.660
Oct’26 487,50 487,80 487,10 490,60 4,10 487,20 31 988
Dec’26 487,50 487,50 487,50 490,80 4,10 487,50 4 853
Mar’27          –              –              –   491,90 4,10 488,20            –   306
May’27          –              –              –   489,30 4,10 485,20            –   210
Aug’27          –              –              –   486,70 4,10            –   3
Oct’27          –              –              –   488,10 4,10            –   60
Dec’27          –              –              –   486,90 4,10            –                 –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   486,20 4,10            –                 –  
Total             12.255 92.073

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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