Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 27th February 2025

It was another calm start to today’s session with the first two hours seeing May’25 edge along a small way above overnight levels, though not showing any sign of recouping back yesterdays losses. March/May’25 was also still under pressure, and this soon started to act as a “drag factor” on the rest of the board again with prices sliding all the way back to 19.20 as we reached noon. Specs were playing the short side and with few resting buy orders in place to provide meaningful support the fall in process continued into the afternoon with the price falling beneath 19c just a day after appearing set to test above 20c. Lows were recorded at 18.78 before the first real signs of short covering / profit taking arrived, and across the rest of the afternoon this allowed May’25 to recover a small portion of the loss and reach 19.12. With those wishing to cover having completed requirements the final part of the day saw the price slide back beneath 19c and sit calmly ahead of the lows, resulting in a May’25 settlement at 18.89 and a vulnerable chart. March’25 meanwhile is looking towards a sizable tender, with the open interest figure of 48,483 lots only expected to show a moderate decline based upon today’s activity. March/May’25 traded down to 0.75 points before closing at 0.80 points as it heads into the final day of trading.      

May’25 whites attempted to dig in and reverse some of yesterday’s losses with early highs at $558.20, and the outright value held firmer through the early part of the session before easing back to unchanged midway through the morning. The decline was being fed by the No.11 where spec influence was being exerted, and with buying orders few and far between the market continued until noon. Having reached the mid $540’s there was some brief respite for the decline, but it was not to last, and the trend resumed to send prices all the way to the upper $530’s. Interestingly the decline was proving to be uniform with the spread structure remaining firm and May/Aug’25 showing little change, wile May/Oct’25 only lost a couple of dollars during the morning but recovered the value as the market bottomed out. Outright lows were recorded at $536.70, and while the remaining hours did not see this level challenged the scale of recovery was limited as shattered confidence limited buying and allowed only a mild recovery that concluded with a settlement price of $539.70. May’Aug’25 ended the day a little higher at $17.70 to reflect some stability of the board structure, and with the May/May’25 white premium also slightly firmer at $123.25 there may remain some hope for longs that this blip can turn around, though the influence of the spec shorts in No.11 will play a large part in that.