Marginally higher values sustained through the first hour of trading however the damage inflicted upon the chart through yesterday’s fall was significant and so gradually we saw smaller traders looking to nudge the market downwards and draw through some fresh selling. Mid-morning lows at 18.75 were made before the market nudged back up towards overnight levels, but this action remained unconvincing and so moving through noon the dawning of the Americas day saw selling return. Ini9tially the market absorbed the selling with only marginal new lows recorded but as time passed so the pressure mounted and led May’25 back to 18.50. Volumes were moderate, particularly in consideration of the size of the trading range, and while the market was able to hold the 18.50’s for an extended period there was eventually another slip which led values down again heading into the final hour. From a low at 18.41 May’25 appeared set to find some late respite with a sharp covering move back up to 18.71, though the rally did not sustain until the close with another significantly weaker settlement recorded at 18.52. March’25 saw very low volumes as the final position closeout / fine tuning took place from those not wanting involvement in the tender. March/May’25 ranged between 0.68 and 1.00 points with closing trades made at the higher end of this band to value the spread at 0.99 points into the expiry. Early talk is that 34,384 lots (1,746,793t) will be tendered, with formal details being published by the exchange on Monday.
Yesterday’s performance ended the higher movement of recent weeks abruptly and though the May’25 nudged back up into the lower $540’s during early trading the market was not showing the buying interest needed to mount a more sustained recovery. By the middle of the morning the gains had erased, and on low volume the next hour was spent tracking sideways though the lethargy started to then draw selling back through once again. Early afternoon saw new lows being recorded with the lack of consumer pricing interest again making the downward path a comfortable one, and while the pace of decline was gentler than yesterday there was still no hint that buyers would return in any significant way. Still the spreads and white premiums values were holding firm with May/Aug’25 continuing between $17 and $18, while May/May’25 saw intra-day trades above $125.00. The flat price decline extended all the way to $530.10 before seeing a brief but sharp correction to $534.30 on short covering which led the market into a choppy final period. May’25 worked to a close at $532.60 with May/Aug’25 at $18.20 and the premium at $124.30 to conclude another poor session for the flat price.
