With the prompt October contract falling almost immediately yesterday to 19.13 post Unica and recovering to settle towards the highs at 19.54 it was clear that the only certainty of the day would be further volatility. After a morning spent challenging the higher end of the recent range buying power seemed to falter and we once again retraced below 19.5. This suggested another technical failure at a break higher (the March 2025 continuing to toy with 20c but never break through) until late in the session where the bulls were able to break higher, pushing the October to just shy of the 20c mark, a key level given the sizeable open interest against the October 20 cent call option. Interestingly this move was met by a sharp reaction in the Oct-March raws spread, rallying from -0.3 to -0.17 before retracing to -0.22 on non-exceptional volume. This move coupled with a spate of producer selling further down the curve through 2026 and 2027 has firmed spreads across the board. The session ended at 19.84, with the October failing to break through the key 20c mark (a high of 19.98) suggesting we may see another effort at this key level tomorrow.
The October 2024 white sugar contract largely traced the raw sugar market from the open, trading to the $550 mark before buying faltered and retracing to $546 in the process. With the nearby white premiums under considerable pressure across the session yesterday it was notable to see a recovery in the October values throughout the day, the VV strengthening from $113 to $118/MT, helping spot refined values push higher to $559 before retreating to $555 at the close.
