The week started with Oct’24 printing a few points higher and then proceeding to accelerate ahead and surpass Fridays 18.74 high mark before the first hour was through. Fridays COT report had shown a sharp turn back to the short side from specs with the position showing at -45,510 lots, and it was possibly in reaction to this and a belief that only more limited selling will follow while the larger hedge funds remain aside that we rallied. The pace of increase maintained to see Oct’24 poke its head up to 19.02 just before noon, though the psychological benefit of a 19c handle then drew in some additional selling to put the brakes on the move. With so many small traders involved some profit taking was to be expected and when it emerged the price fell back by around 20 points before regathering once the selling eased. The status quo then resumed with the Oct’24 price holding either side of 19.00, and while the later afternoon saw marginal new daily highs registered at 19.05 the buying lacked the size needed to work further into the selling. Prices remained firm through until the end of the session which ensured a positive close at 19.01 and leaves the market well placed to continue this rally if the buying can be found.
The whites jumped higher this morning in reaction to the rally already taking place for No.11 and following a brief cooling period to assess the buyers continued to send the market higher through the next couple of hours. Progress was steady and by late morning Oct’24 had risen to $539.00 though the rate of gain still lagged that being seen for No.11 causing the nearby white premiums to be impacted. Oct/Oct’24 was flitting around the upper teens and despite the steady picture there was a sense that the whites are currently not driving the direction as has often been the case recently. A profit taking dip to $533.30 was a mere blip in an otherwise solid picture which saw prices tracking along a small way beneath the highs for most of the afternoon. Spread volume was steady and provided some gloss to an otherwise quiet day with the front month not driving ahead in the regular way as Oct/Dec’24 sat near to $12.00. There was some pre-close position squaring at the top of the board, though a still healthy performance was posted with Oct’24 settlement at $536.70. Oct/Oct’24 settled $3 down at $117.60, a lag factor which may concern longs looking to build n todays efforts.
