Opening buying immediately took March’23 up to 19.54 however there was limited volume to the move and before long the price set back to sit around unchanged levels. The wider commodity macro was showing some gains today as it looked to recover yesterday’s poorer showing, however that was of little influence for No.11 which was soon starting to appear weary once again, likely in reaction to last night’s delayed COT report. The data showed that as at last Tuesday the funds had further increased their net long by 36,911 lots to a total of 168,539 lots, a greater number than anticipated with the market already having returned sub-20c at time of reporting. A steady decline maintained through into the early afternoon with March’23 trading down to 19.06, just a single point above yesterdays low, at which stage support was once more uncovered. Working back away from these lows all seemed remarkable orderly, however the funds had other ideas and from nowhere the market found a burst of more aggressive new buying to surge higher. There was only limited resistance in place as March’23 extended all the way to 19.78, and in doing so took March/May’23 back to 1.11 points, though the move was soon followed by some corrective action from long liquidation/profit taking. The final hour saw the market hold comfortably onto some of the gains to end the session at 19.53, stabilising the market following the wobble towards 19c over the last two days though with questions remaining as to whether a return to 20c can be sustained.
The market attempted to hold onto yesterday’s recovery during early trading, but the small initial gains were soon forgotten to leave March’23 slipping back down to sit in the mid $520’s. Volumes fell away considerably as the morning dragged on, and it took the usual early afternoon arrival of Americas traders to bring some fresh activity with some light long liquidation emerging in reaction to the slide and sending the price down further to $522.20. The movement was coming despite the macro showing broad gains, crossing paths, and marking a reversal of yesterday’s movements for both the wider sector as for sugar. What followed during the afternoon saw our own fortunes re-couple with the wider commodity world as prices pulled away from the lows before gathering some impressive pace as fund buying reappeared to accelerate the March’23 contract up to $537.80. As so often with spec based moves the momentum is lost when they ease their foot from the gas and so a spell of long liquidation followed to send values briefly to mid-range before being gathered back up during the final hour. Through all this movement the white premium was relatively flat, March/March’23 holding between $101 and $103 for most of the session while May/May’23 sat either side of $117.00. The close played out in the upper half of the range to ensure a positive close for March’23 at $533.70, maintaining recent parameters and stemming the decline for the moment.
