There were small losses showing during early trading however these were soon erased as spec buying looked to build on yesterday’s positive showing. Their efforts were rewarded with a move up to 22.89, just a couple of points shy of yesterday’s 22.91 mark, and with better scale selling being found from this point progress became somewhat tougher. Efforts over the past couple of weeks have seen the net speculative long position rise to 42,265 lots as at the most recent report and with additional longs likely added in the subsequent three sessions it is no wonder that the longs were keen to hold the market, consolidating sideways through the rest of the morning before matching the 22.91 mark. This left the situation well poised as the US morning got underway, but before we had seen any real opportunity to build the market began to tumble, triggering long liquidation which quickly sent the price falling to 22.47. The market looked to stabilise for a short period, however with newswires reporting that the Indian mills are asking the government to allow one million tonnes of world market exports there were few willing to step in and arrest the fall and so further losses followed. May’24 slipped to 22.27 before short covering brought a small bounce, though it did not last and when the cover had been taken prices slipped back towards the lows. Pressure remained into the close with May’24 hovering only just above 22.30 through the final stages and settling at 22.32, an inauspicious showing which suggests a pause in the recent rally for the near-term as more clarity is sought against the Indian story.
The market resumed following the 4-day Easter holiday weekend with ground to make up on the No.11 considering its gains made in the meantime, and despite initial prints only being around $1 higher the May’24 contract soon accelerated ahead. Within an hour the market had comfortably surpassed last Thursdays mark to record another recent high at $664.60, though progress then stalled due to a combination of scale selling and profit taking. This movement had led to a significant widening of the May’24 spreads with highs seen for May/Aug’24 at $29.90, though once the rally had ended so the spread started to give back some of the gains against pre-expiry position rolling. The spread was seeing a steady flow of rolling through the day, but of greater interest was the flat price which was seeing progress wane by early afternoon with longs showing some signs of fatigue. A sharp correction then followed which sent values plunging into deficit, with lows recorded for May’24 at $645.90 and Aug’24 at $623.10. the sharp nature of the correction also caused damage to the arbs with May/May’24 back into the lower $150’s and Aug/Jul’24 around $136.00, though both encountered buying to subsequently recoup some ground. As the afternoon continued so prices settled into a range within a few dollars of the lows, only breaking into new ground during the final hour as the lack of rally encouraged new selling to emerge. May’24 slipped to new lows at $643.30 during the final stages with settlement at $643.90, while Aug’24 settled just off its lows at $623.00. White premiums were also lower with May/May’24 around $152.00 and Aug/Jul’24 at $138.00 to start the month on a weak note.
