There was no fanfare as December got underway calmly, with prices showing little change throughout the first part of the day but then attracting some light buying interest which extended gains up to 21.26. That was the sum of interest from an otherwise non-descript morning, though things then started to come to life with the market making a quick retreat down against light liquidation and into fresh low daily ground, with the COT delayed its harder to guess the spec holding, though it undoubtedly remains low and so many specs have free rein currently to take advantage as situations arise. This became apparent as selling volumes increased and filled in an assortment of scale down buying from trade/consumer entities, and bringing the price to sit just 2 points above the November lows at 20.88. This proved to be a staging post and when another aggressive spec push arrived the price worked beneath this mark and moved to 20.70 before some profit taking started to kick in. Initially it seemed that this may just be a pause in the movement until a push back above 20.86 drew additional short covering and set the market back into rangebound trading for the balance of the day. Late buying pulled the price back through 21c, virtually erasing the losses as March’25 closed at 21.07 and providing a more stable look than would have been anticipated earlier in the afternoon.        

 

It was a slow but steady start to the week as March’25 dug itself in around unchanged levels through the early stages before nudging its way up through $550.00 midway through the morning. This slow and steady approach continued and resulted in highs traded at $552.00 heading into the afternoon. With the environment still featureless any sustained movement must be reliant on the specs and so once their buying dried up the market began to reverse once more, returning towards opening lows at a relatively quick pace. Where the rally stalled, the downside was attracting more interest as the momentum traders looked to seize the opportunity to test the $542.10 recent low and their efforts soon had the market sitting on support placed a small way ahead of this mark. There was a short pause before the market did trade through it and extend the fall to $540.60, though with no stops present the lows were seen only briefly and an element of short covering occurred. There was little movement for the spreads with March/May’25 holding in front of $2.00 for much of the day, though the white premium was firmer with March/March’25 back over $84. Having held in the mid $540’s the price picked back up a little further during the closing stages which resulted in an unchanged March’25 settlement at $547.70, a more positive note on which to end a vulnerable session. 

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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