It was an unconvincing start to the session for the whites as Oct’24 tr5aded down to 20c on the call, and despite then consolidating the lower teens for a period there seemed a reluctance from buyers to chase higher. Gradually the market retreated again with the psychologically pivotal 20c level back into focus by late morning. The market explored this area for an extended period with occasional forays lower seeing prints down to 19.93, however specs have been more positive of late with the short positions now reduced and as we moved further into the afternoon, so things started to pick back up. Initially the movement was calm with the covering rally bringing the price to the lower 20.30’s and a small credit, though from here things became far more interesting. Specs and algo’s made an aggressive push which quickly eclipsed the recent highs and spiked the price to 20.71, with more buying following from the same area as they looked to maximise the opportunity. Highs were eventually made at 20.78 and likely, this may have erased most of the remaining net short from the COT positions, though we will have to wait until next Monday to find out. Liquidation took place during the final hour before a calm close played out in the lower 20.60’s, though a settlement level at 20.61 looks good on the chart and may encourage more buying ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Thursday.
An uninspiring period of trading this morning saw Oct’24 give up small early gains to trade down into the mid $560’s, extending the apathetic trading seen through yesterday’s session with the market lacking news/impetus. Moving through into early afternoon there was no change to this scenario with the market content to track along in front of yesterdays lows, maintaining the consolidation to keep the structure in a joyless way. It was only during the final three hours that the picture started to change with a small push back up to overnight levels, and though this didn’t initially gain traction it proved to be the start of more significant movement. In tandem with the No.11 market sugar started to accelerate ahead at a pace, quickly bringing Friday’s high at $575.40 into view and surpassing it as specs chased all that they could find. This buying was having a reverse impact upon the Aug/Oct’24 spread however with Aug’24 failing to match the pace of the rest of the board and dropping back to $900 as a result. In fact, the greatest support was for the early 2025 positions so Oct’24 was also showing contrarian movement and losing ground on a spread basis with Oct/Dec’24 seeing lows at $6.50 late in the afternoon. Supportive buying for the close ensured a strong finish for Oct’24 with settlement made at $576.30, though Aug’24 continued to falter and went out at $584.30, valuing Aug/Oct’24 at just $8.00.
