An opening either side of unchanged soon settled into a morning of quiet consolidation during which the market tracked along calmly either side of 19c to maintain yesterday’s gains. There was a small blip back to 18.89 late in the morning which was gathered up and the market returned to the 19c area once again, consolidating but without finding any significant buying to push ahead. It really was a non-descript session as the situation continued through to mid-afternoon, and only then did the range widen out a little more with another dip, this time to 18.81 for Oct’24 as some small trader selling / liquidation took place. As with the small dip earlier in the session this was picked up, showing the desire to maintain strength despite a lack of sizable volume. The desire to maintain these levels were possibly aided by talk of lower crop numbers from India in the forthcoming season, though these will be viewed cautiously by most at this stage given their preliminary nature. Having returned to 19c the market set about breaking to higher ground through the final hour, still on mild volume but achieving gains to extend this rally to 19.14. This insured a positive settlement value just 2 points shy of the highs at 19.12, maintaining positive momentum for another day. 

An opening push up to $539.50 looked to set the tone for the market to continue higher but there was only limited buying and so progress quickly stalled. The morning then developed into one of calm consolidation chopping between the early highs and $535.70 but performing solidly enough to leave the market maintaining the recent recovery. It was a slow progression through into the afternoon as the status quo maintained, which discouraged fresh participation as prices simply edged along. A sharp fall to $532.70 then appeared as fresh daily lows drew some long liquidation; however, this was gathered up and the market arrived at the final hour trading near to unchanged with the damage reversed. This left traders able to protect longs and push values back towards the highs during the final stages, something successfully achieved as Oct’24 closed a couple of dollars firmer at $538.60. The Oct/Oct’24 white premium ebbed around its recent range through the day but showed only small change going out with a closing value at $117.10.

 

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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