Recent days have seen the rallies emerge from calm beginnings however there was a change of pace today with nearby positions beginning on the front foot to quickly punch through to another set of contract highs. The initial move saw March’23 work up to 21.44 with May’23 pulling through 20c alongside, and while the moderate nature of scale selling was making the movement quite easy there was still a determination from the funds/specs at the heart of it. A second wave of buying followed to take March’23 to 21.66 before the morning was done, and while a period of relative calm followed there was no hint that the market would fall back by very far. The pattern resumed once US specs had joined the party with the next push extending the move to 21.79, though on this occasion there was a sharp pullback to the 21.50 area that followed as some of the longs headed for the exit door. Not to be deterred we saw the price action turn positive again for the final two hours, March’23 matching its earlier contract high while May’23, which continues to attract the new fund buying, made new marks of its own in reaching 20.47 just ahead of the close. Spread volumes were decent today, with March/May’23 reasonably flat overall as rolling starts to emerge from both sides to be trading at 1.32 points late on. Settlements were made just shy of the highs at 21.76 for March’23 and 20.44 for May’23 with a final pair of contract highs recorded on the post close at 21.82 and 20.48 respectively. There will be many people interested to see what this week’s COT brings with the 5-day reporting period seeing a March’23 range of 19.73 / 21.82 and a May’23 range of 18.50 / 20.48. The latest efforts further take the market into overbought ground which would imply some cooling is not too far away, though at present it seems the longs have their sights set on 22c.
Despite starting the journey as something of a reluctant passenger of the No.11 movement the whites have fully embraced the recent positivity, setting off strongly again this morning with a push into the upper $570’s. The pace was likely a little too rapid and so the arrival of some profit taking was not unexpected and led values back to consolidate just ahead of $570 as the buyers regrouped. White premiums were performing with a little more stability and March/March’23 flitted around either side of $100.00 while May/May’23 remains solid in the lower $120’s. Moving into the afternoon there was a continuation of the recent pattern with further efforts being made to push the market and maximise the opportunity presented by the fund longs. Their initial efforts fell shy of the morning highs before a more concerted move during the last two hours yielded greater success as March’23 surged to a new high at $581.60 while May’23 reached $573.60. The front spread seems to be finally showing signs of levelling out now the fund roll is more advanced and ended the session at $7.60. Nearby settlements were again incredibly positive at $580.70 for March’23 and $573.10 for May’23 and while the movements over last week and this have taken the market into overbought ground there may yet be more to come in the near term.
