Resuming after the long weekend there was an immediate plunge to 19.02 as Oct’24 reacted to the fall in white’s values yesterday, though an equally rapid about turn then had the market working back to overnight levels and dismissing the signal. The price soon turned positive with a nudge up to 19.53, though trading was proving mixed and as the morning progressed, so the price did slip back into the negative. The afternoon and its larger spec activity was always likely to dictate things more definitively and it soon became apparent that the concerns which drove many of the specs to close out shorts remain in place. Last Fridays COT report showed a reduction in the net short of almost 40,000 lots to stand at -31,120 lots, and with more likely covered since the sentiment has clearly started to shift. The latest round of covering saw Oct’24 up to 19.77, and though the price then eased back a little there remained net gains showing through the afternoon. Spreads meanwhile were relatively flat with Oct’24/March’25 continuing either side of -0.30 points, with more action expected here in towards the end of the week once the index roll gets underway. A choppy closing period saw Oct’24 settle at 19.49, representing a modest gain though the afternoon showing was unconvincing for those hoping to see the market progress above 20c in the near term.
With No.11 having rejected a dip to match yesterday’s losses we saw an opening price jump to bring the white premium values back into line, with early highs at $545.50 showing gains of more than $13. These were not maintained and a dip to fill the intra-day chart gap followed, though with sentiment from the raws still proving friendly the market remained steadier and settled down to hold the $540.00 area. This held the Oct/Oct’24 premium in the $115,00 area, though values were notably softer than they had been at the end of last week to reflect some hangover following yesterday’s weakness. Still the market tracked higher as we moved into the afternoon against short covering from US based specs, though this was very much following action with the flat price attracting limited volumed. Instead, it was the spread which saw the bulk of activity, comprising more than half of the volume for the front two months as rolling gathers pace, the Oct/Dec’24 spread value widening to $13.70 at one stage though falling back to be little changed by the later afternoon. White premiums also eased further during this period with Oct/Oct’24 trading near to $112.00 and sending mildly negative signals despite the misleading gain showing next to the value. There was some mixed position squaring as the closing call approached but an orderly call ensued as Oct’24 conclude the session at $541.80.
