Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 4th April 2025

Raw sugar update

H5 opened the session at 19.07, immediately met with selling pressure as market participants reacted to the newly imposed US tariffs, with the United States being one of the world’s top importers of sugar. The tariff announcement sparked a risk-off tone early in the session, triggering a wave of liquidation that pushed H5 down toward the 18.80s within the first hour of trading. Despite a brief intraday recovery attempt just after 13:00, which took prices to a session high of 19.06, the rebound lacked follow-through. Resistance at those levels quickly reasserted itself, and selling resumed, driving prices to the daily low of 18.76 by 14:41. Late in the day, some mild support emerged, likely driven by short-term covering or bargain-hunting into the dip, helping H5 claw its way back to close at 18.93, a modest recovery but still down on the day versus the previous 19.11 settlement. The broader tone remains cautious, with speculative flows hesitant and directionless amid macroeconomic noise and renewed trade policy concerns. Overall, the session did little to shake the contract out of its broader 18c–19c holding pattern. The broader board mirrored the bearish tone, with the entire curve settling lower on the day; losses ranged between -0.18c to -0.29c, with deferred contracts like V5 and H7 shedding around 1.3%–1.6%, confirming the widespread impact of risk-off flows sparked by tariff headlines.

White sugar update

No.5 opened at 541.20 and initially attempted to hold higher ground, briefly tagging a session high of 543.60 early in the session before sellers gradually gained the upper hand. The modest bullish start faded quickly, as price action shifted into a controlled drift lower over the mid-morning, with minimal speculative interest to sustain early momentum. By midday, H5 had slipped below the opening handle and was finding difficulty building meaningful support, eventually drifting toward the session low of 535.70, where dip-buying or short covering briefly emerged. However, the tone remained soft overall, with intraday rallies shallow and short-lived. Volume, while not excessive, picked up modestly during the early afternoon fade and then late in the evening, suggesting a measured round of commercial or macro-driven positioning. There was a flicker of late-session recovery interest, as the contract briefly recovered above 538, though this proved to be mechanical rather than conviction-driven. A final bout of two-way trade into the close saw H5 settle at 538.10, a net loss on the day that keeps the contract comfortably within its recent 530–545 consolidation band. Today’s softness reflects the broader risk tone carried over from global macro developments, including heightened tariff concerns that weighed on overall sentiment across the sugar complex. While raw sugar saw more pronounced volatility, No.5 continues to display a more muted reaction—perhaps buffered by ongoing tightness in physical demand within the refined space.