The macro was helping to provide a higher call to begin the new week and early gains soon drew a degree of spec buying into the environment which sent March’23 quickly ahead to 19.76. There was no follow on buying to the move and so a retreat down into the range took place, however the tone was set and by late morning the upward path had resumed. Specs were showing solid buying interest as they look to build upon their significant long holding which has accumulated over the past few weeks, showing as 157,847 lots as at last Tuesday and likely to a little larger than that as the new weeks got underway when activity over the second half of last week is considered. As more aggressive buying emerged with the Americas day underway, so the market pushed ahead to match last Wednesdays high mark at 19.94, however the move ended abruptly and alongside the wider macro we fell back triggering day traders to exit their longs. This left the market sitting near to 19.60, still holding on to modest gains but removing the shine from the earlier efforts by placing more questions as to whether a move beyond 20c might be sustainable. The final part of the day proved to be very quiet as prices consolidated within a narrow band, only moving from it marginally during the closing stages as a little more position squaring sent March’23 out at 19.55, a level which maintains the status quo.
Responding to gains in both the macro and No.11 we saw a positive start to the week at $535.00 with March’23 then swiftly pushing ahead to trade through $540.00 before pausing. By late morning, the upward path had resumed however, a combination of limited selling and a desire from specs to further add to their sizable 31.499 lot net long position taking the front month to a high of $548.50. This widened the white premiums significantly with March/March’23 trading to $109.00 and May/May’23 near to $121.00 before the market turned around on long liquidation. Macro values were pulling back through the afternoon and so some of the new spec buying quickly exited, taking March’23 back to the $540.00 area where it was able to consolidate, still a stead performance in the context of other markets as it maintained a good proportion of the premium gains, while nearby spreads also remained firm with March/May’23 holding around $13.50. The final two hours saw some simple consolidation, leaving March’23 to settle at $539.10 and register steady gains.
