Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 7th February 2025

March’25 saw prices chopping either side of unchanged through the early part of the session, though the ranges were reasonably tight with most of the movement being generated by day traders keen to find some opportunity following yesterdays upside failure. A quiet morning ensued with nearby values holding the same narrow band, and while some fresh buying emerged during the early afternoon it felt like a half-hearted effort to fish for spec buyers and revive the upside with a lack of interest quickly bringing long liquidation and a reversal into the red. Afternoon activities saw a touch more volatility as March’25 swing between 19.65/19.40, though with only nominal trade and fund involvement it all felt rather meaningless. The first official day of the index roll was also proving to be uninspiring as the March/May’25 spread continued to trade in the 1.50’s, and while the volume made up more than 50% of the respective March’25 and May’25 totals it was moderate at best until the late afternoon. Spread volumes picked up during the final 30 minutes with the more aggressive activity coming from the buy side and taking the value to a high of 1.61 points before a sudden reversal as aggressive index selling into the close sent it all the way back to 1.48 points and a close at 1.50 points. March’25 was also making new lows on the way down to a close at 19.36, completing a disappointing end to the week for traders to contemplate as they gather in Dubai over the weekend.  

Yesterday’s retreat from new highs appeared to have killed a large part of the recent enthusiasm and so a more muted start to today’s session saw prices trading a touch lower before settling down to sit little changed through the middle of the morning. Having held this are for a couple of hours some additional small trader interest started to emerge ahead of the US morning and begin probing higher with May’25 edging up to $511.60, however there was no fresh interest following behind and when the inevitable liquidation arrived it sent the price rapidly back to the early lows. Much of the activity continues to generate from the March’25 spreads ahead of expiry, with the March/May’25 still generally stead in the teens though dropping back towards $13 this afternoon against the flat price movements. These saw May’25 dropping down to $503.90 as the failing upside momentum encouraged the specs to explore the opposite side, though interest remained flimsy and intermittent. White premiums were quiet with May’May’25 flitting either side of $110.00, and increasingly the environment felt as though traders were simply hanging on for the close. The final stages saw aggressive selling send May’25 down to $501.00 and a close at $502.50, a weak conclusion which reinforces the feeling that we may have seen the highs for the near term.