Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 7th March 2025

It was a lively opening today as May’25 ranged between 18.26 / 18.45 during the first few minutes as overnight buying / hedge lifting met with few resting orders. Trading then settled down to sit within this initial range, and volume soon fell away to leave the market sideways for the rest of the morning with day traders seemingly disinterested in proceedings. Recent efforts to reverse the current downward trend have met with failure and so an early afternoon slip to sit in the lower 18.20’s raised questions as to whether another move to 18c would develop, but it was not to be with the low volume seeing prices continue sideways and consolidate. In turn some buying / short covering appeared during the later afternoon and took May’25 back to match the opening high, however the movement meant little with most traders having long since retired for the weekend given the low interest. Reaching the close May/Jul’25 was little changed at 0.32 points while the spot month ended the session at 18.31, providing a higher close but with more exploration of the 18c area feeling probable when we resume with tonight’s COT report set to show fresh growth in the net spec short holding.

It was a positive start for the market with May’25 trading up into the lower $520’s on the opening and then finding sufficient buying to remain in that same area through much of the morning. The market wobbled a touch ahead of noon with the price starting to move back down into the upper teens, however the volumes involved were paltry and it was proving to be a mere extension of the morning band as May’25 remained quietly sideways. The calm ended with a bang as the market spiked up to$525.50 during the afternoon, and while this appeared to be a small blip on an otherwise sideways chart for a while it ultimately proved to be a precursor for another look higher as the weekend neared. This second moved proved to be more sustainable and saw another set of new highs at $526.90 before consolidating the upper portion of the range through the later stages. This strength had a ripple effect into the white premium as it moved back up to the $121.00 area, while there was some steady buying arriving into the May/Aug’25 spread which extended its value out to an intra-day high $20.90. May’25 settled at $524.90 to head into the weekend on a less negative note, though the action of recent days tells us that there remains more work to do to build a sustainable bottom.