Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 9th April 2025

Raw Sugar Update 

Following yesterday’s weak technical showing the market commenced by immediately breaking beneath 18.26 and nestling into the upper teens, where it remained through the first hour. Some brief respite then arrived however it was only the smaller traders again showing much interest in trading the outright market and so by late morning we were again breaking new low ground with the weakness in the wider commodity macro driving the sentiment as May’25 was sold down to 18.05. There were more sizable buy orders starting to emerge as the early March lows drew ever closer with consumers looking to take advantage of the current opportunity and these held the market for a period aided by more macro flux which briefly led a short covering rally to 18.35 though this quickly tired. Instead, it remained the downside through which those brave enough to trade the markets currently feel more comfortable positioning themselves, and their latest effort sent the price through 18.00 during the final couple of hours to fill in some of the resting scales. Alongside these efforts it remained the spread that was generating the bulk of the volume as spec/index rolling ramps up ahead of the expiry and today saw a sizable 71,000 lot volume for May/Jul’25 change hands between 0.14 and 0.25 points. With the chart looking increasingly negative the selling pressure remained into the close to register a daily low at 17.87, just 0.03 points above the level registered on 6th March. May’25 settlement was only a few points above the low at 17.91, and barring a sudden return of macro confidence it appears the chat sentiment may dominate for a little longer yet.

White Sugar Update 

The tone was already being set by No.11 to send Aug’25 into the day trading lower and the first hour saw the price down to $506.70 before finding some light support. Any relief from the pressure was brief and as the morning progressed so the market encountered additional selling which extended the losses little by little, with the pace of decline being a combination of the moderate volume of selling combined with the presence of some larger end user pricing orders now that the recent lows are moving back into view. This buying proved sufficient to hold the market for a period, but it could not hold the ground alone and so as heavier selling (macro related?) arrived midway through the afternoon to test into the psychological $500 area. This was duly broken and while the scale down buying continued to provide some support it merely slowed the route to session lows at $498.20 on the close. Alongside this flat price weakness there was some respite for the May/Aug’25 spread which moved up towards $15 later in the session as the pressure weighed on the Aug’25, with volume of well over 5,000 lots showing just how many positions remain to be rolled ahead of next Tuesdays expiry. With Aug’25 settling at $498.80 a test of $494.90 feels inevitable, though in the current macro climate it is difficult to predict anything with great certainty as external politics and the ripple effects occur.