Insight Focus
- Urea, potash and processed phosphate prices are all falling.
- India is likely to buy less urea than first thought at its upcoming spot tender.
- Demand is low in the processed phosphate markets too.
Again all eyes are focused on the India urea tender closing on November 17th with shipments by December 22nd. The market expects India to buy less than 1 million MT or as little as 700 KT. Urea prices keep softening and there are those who expect the lowest offers in the India tender will be sub USD 600 CFR. The current FOB range in the Middle East is between USD 580-610 PMT.
Processed phosphate prices are also struggling with prices falling in key markets with low demand across the board. Brazil’s MAP price is reported at around USD 600-640 CFR. Brazil ‘s import of MAP in 2022 to October was reported at 3.6 million MT, down 13% y/y whilst the combined granular phosphate imports dwon 5.6% to 10.8 million MT y/y.
Potash prices keep on falling in Brazil with another decline of USD 15 PMT this week to between USD 550-590 CFR less than half at its peak in April 2022. SE Asia is still carrying a premium to those in Brazil by about USD 135 PMT and pegged at between USD 690-720 PMT. It is therefore likely that we may see SE Asia potash prices fall further in the weeks ahead. Similarly, prices in NW Europe are as high as USD 250 PMT more than those in Brazil due to lack of supplies from Belarus and Russia. Further declines on potash prices are therefore likely in the weeks ahead.
Ammonia prices are holding up from last week but increased production of ammonia in Europe will most likely see pressure on prices building.
In general the fertilizer market is dormant with demand destruction and lack of demand still taking a hold and toll on prices.
